The Ukraine Conflict's New Phase

The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has implications for global power and warfighting in the twenty-first century. In the first phase of the war, Russia did not succeed in initial attempts to capture Kyiv and implement regime change in Ukraine.

Whilst there are various drivers of this outcome, key reasons that emerge from current analysis include divergences in Russian and Ukrainian military structure, as well as Russian miscalculations. The conflict has now moved to a second phase with a focus on the Donbas region.

Three foreseeable outcomes of this phase of the conflict can be characterised as: attrition, military victory or escalation. Which of these outcomes transpires will have implications for how the conflict influences international order in coming years. An additional important factor that will shape the broader impact on the international order is China's position on the conflict and how it evolves.